Even if the shutdown ends now, Thanksgiving travel could still be a mess

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy isn’t sugarcoating it: even if the government shutdown magically ended today, the skies aren’t going to clear up in time for Thanksgiving. On Friday, he warned that staffing shortages among air traffic controllers are just too big to fix before one of the busiest travel weeks of the year.

So yeah, brace yourself. Flying home for turkey and pumpkin pie could be a nightmare. Hundreds of flights are expected to be affected, thanks to the shortage of controllers — a problem made worse by the shutdown. The FAA has already started rolling out unprecedented flight cuts to deal with it.

And according to Duffy, those cuts aren’t going anywhere before Thanksgiving. "So if the government opens on day one, will I see an immediate response from controllers? No, the union is telling me it’s going to take time to get them all back in," he told CNN.

"I don’t wish this was the circumstance in which I was dealing with," he added. "So I imagine, as we see the data change and more controllers come to work, we are as quickly as possible going to take these restrictions away."

The FAA says it’s trimming flights in the busiest parts of the country while the shutdown drags on. These reductions kicked in Friday — Day 38 of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. Right now, 4% of flights in and out of 40 major airports are being cut, and that number is set to climb to 10% by next Friday. Duffy even floated the possibility of slashing up to 20% of flights at some airports. "I don't want to see that," he told Fox News.

The airports on the chopping block include Chicago O’Hare, Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson, Miami International, and all three New York-area airports.

FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford explained Thursday that the move was triggered by “fatigue” among controllers, who’ve been working without pay since the shutdown began. He pointed out that staffing shortages were already an issue before the shutdown — now they’re just worse.

Controllers are considered essential workers, so they can’t walk off the job. But exhaustion is real. Nick Daniels, president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, put it bluntly: “It’s unprecedented to go through two full paychecks, 37 days, and receive no compensation. So it’s not a matter of calling in sick. They’re calling their employer and saying, ‘I don’t have gas. I have not received pay in 37 days. What do you want me to do?'”

And it’s not just passengers who’ll feel the squeeze. Patrick Penfield, a professor of supply chain practice at Syracuse University, said retailers could struggle to restock popular holiday items if flights keep getting cut. "Forty percent to 50% of all air freight is shipped in the belly of passenger planes," Penfield explained. "If you eliminate 10% of airline capacity, air freight prices will rise, and we could see delays in getting materials via air."

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